Amidst the accumulation of negative news regarding the threats of war conflicts, primarily in the Middle East, recent reports about potential ceasefires in Ukraine have captured public attention. Virginia Tech international affairs expert Gerard Toal, who has extensively researched Ukrainian public opinion, recently indicated a growing openness among Ukrainians towards negotiations with Russia. According to a survey by the Kyiv International Sociological Institute, up to 57 percent of Ukrainians now believe their government should negotiate peace with Moscow, a significant increase from last year’s 33 percent. Furthermore, approximately two-thirds of Ukrainians reported difficulties or extreme difficulties in managing the cost of living during the war, highlighting the conflict’s profound impact on their daily lives.
These developments suggest a growing willingness among Ukrainians to consider a potential territorial compromise with Russia in exchange for a ceasefire. Unnamed European diplomats reported that Ukraine’s new foreign minister, Andriy Sybiha, hinted at such “compromise solutions” during his recent visit to the United States, where he met with Western partners. This marks a significant shift from the previous stance where compromise was virtually off the table.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi, who initially ruled out direct talks with Russia, has softened his stance this summer, suggesting that direct negotiations could commence in November. However, he remains steadfast in his demand for Russia to withdraw from all occupied Ukrainian territory.
While the Ukrainian position is not officially presented by Ukrainians, insights into their considerations can be gleaned from interviews with Ukrainian partners. For instance, Czech President Petr Pavel, a strong supporter of Ukraine, stated in an interview with The New York Times that the most likely outcome of the war will be a temporary Russian occupation of part of Ukrainian territory. He emphasized that neither Ukraine nor Russia can expect to achieve their maximum goals and that the war is likely to conclude with a compromise that avoids a complete defeat for either side.
However, reports do not indicate any willingness on the part of Russia to negotiate a ceasefire. Putin is likely to await the outcome of the November U.S. presidential elections. If Donald Trump wins, he has pledged to swiftly end the war in Ukraine by brokering a deal between the Russian and Ukrainian presidents. While the specific terms of this potential deal remain unclear, Trump’s running mate, Sen. JD Vance, recently offered some insights. In an interview on The Shawn Ryan Show on September 11, Vance outlined a deal that would allow Moscow to retain control of all currently occupied Ukrainian territory. In exchange, Ukraine would be expected to reject NATO membership and commit to international neutrality.
