There have been tariff tensions between the U.S. and many countries across the world. The Philippines, a country located in the belt of Southeast Asia, seeks ways to diffuse the tension and promote deeper cooperation between the two countries.
Hence, amid these escalating economic tensions, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. arrived in the U.S. capital on July 20 for a three-day visit. Marcos sees the trip as an opportunity to rebalance economic and security alliances in the face of regional unrest and changing American priorities.
Long regarded as a crucial ally of the United States in Southeast Asia, the Philippines is concerned about becoming entangled in the tangle of great power rivalry. In stark contrast to his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte’s China-friendly stance, the Marcos administration has firmly reaffirmed its partnership with the United States. However, it is now confronting unforeseen economic challenges from Washington, especially in the form of growing trade tariffs.
Under U.S. trade policies that have also impacted other allies, Manila has been subject to a 20% tariff. The Philippines, on the other hand, feels that it has gone farther than most in supporting American strategic interests, especially in light of China’s increasing aggression in the South China Sea. Manila residents are growing increasingly frustrated, particularly in light of the successful negotiations for lower tariffs by nations like Vietnam and Indonesia.
Meanwhile, anticipated U.S. economic ventures have not taken off as quickly as expected. More than a year after its unveiling, the Luzon Economic Corridor, a major project intended to improve connectivity and infrastructure in the northern Philippines, is still mainly inactive. The lack of economic impetus is turning out to be politically costly for a nation looking for material benefits for its allegiance.
Domestic issues exacerbate that pressure. After his election in 2022, Marcos was elated, but his political status has since declined. Poor midterm election results and a rift with the influential Duterte family have made him more vulnerable. A clear economic victory from Washington could help Marcos regain his footing and influence the course of Philippine foreign policy going forward, especially since Vice President Sara Duterte is predicted to win the 2028 presidential election.
With the U.S. supporting Philippine base upgrades and investing in maritime infrastructure close to flashpoints like Second Thomas Shoal, security cooperation has intensified in recent months. However, Manila is concerned about what it perceives to be Taiwan’s “alliance creep.” There are worries that the Philippines might be drawn into a future conflict over Taiwan because a number of new American military installations are centered close to the Bashi Channel, which is closer to Taiwan than disputed regions in the South China Sea.
While strengthening Philippine defenses is important, observers caution that Washington must proceed with caution. The partnership is likely to be more solid and long-lasting if a strategy that prioritizes moderation is implemented, strengthening Manila’s maritime domain awareness and thwarting China’s gray zone activities without increasing military deployments.
The focus of this week’s meetings is to see if both nations can align their security and economic objectives without going too far. For Marcos, the stakes are high for both his political survival and foreign policy. Furthermore, Washington’s approach to this relationship may have a long-term impact on the larger U.S. role in Asia.
