After an enduring period of deep division, war, and missed opportunities for a peace breakthrough, Turkey stepped in to lead the path of peace between Russia and Ukraine. The recent talks between the two countries in Istanbul produced optimistic outcomes.
The two-day summit, held at the magnificent Dolmabahçe Palace on the Bosphorus, took place in Istanbul, the capital city of a government that has shown leadership, working quietly for years to maintain channels of diplomacy between Moscow and Kyiv.
However, while no lasting peace agreement emerged, the negotiations marked a rare moment of engagement between the two warring sides. And also, Turkey’s deliberate role in the global peace push.
One significant outcome of the talks was an agreement to exchange a thousand prisoners each, a development that surprised even the most seasoned observers. Weeks back, it never seemed possible that the two sides would agree to anything. The prisoner exchange deal, which includes civilians as well as military personnel, came after Turkey proposed expanding the original framework of the talks, which focused primarily on humanitarian access and temporary ceasefires.
Negotiations started on a frenetic note; they became so tense that they were nearly derailed, with each side arriving with sharply conflicting demands and seeming uncompromising in their position.
Russia was firm on its peace conditions. It called for Ukraine’s withdrawal of troops from the four contested regions and also pledged that it must not join NATO.
On the other hand, Ukraine expressed defiance and rejection of Russia’s stance. It refused any territorial concessions and demanded a phased ceasefire to begin the process of building blocks of trust.
Leading the Ukrainian delegation was the Ukrainian Minister of Defense Rustem Umerov, a seasoned businessman with vast experience in negotiations. He led a forceful pushback against Russian territorial claims using historical grievances. He was peeved by Russia’s historical proposition regarding the contested areas, saying, “We’re here to talk about the present and the future, not ancient history.”
His outburst led to an exchange with the Russian representatives, a brawl that nearly led to a walkout and the collapse of talks.
The Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and National Intelligence Chief İbrahim Kalın, who were present at the talks, were pivotal in keeping the talks going despite imminent collapse.
For instance, Fidan, more often than not, intervened in an attempt to mediate between the two sides and ensure that talks advanced.
For Turkey and its leadership, this was more than just a hosting duty; it was a demonstration of its long-sought interest in becoming a regional mediator.
On his part, the president of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who was involved, urged both countries to show restraint and realism in their expectations. Behind the scenes, he also cautioned against overselling the summit as a peace breakthrough, warning that disappointment could be dangerous.
The U.S. was not present at the talks. They were exempted following a late objection by Moscow. Yet, at the talks, Washington’s influence was felt.
U.S. officials had encouraged both parties to take Turkey’s role seriously, and a quiet meeting between Russian lead negotiator Vladimir Medinsky and U.S. State Department advisor Michael Anton took place in an Istanbul hotel ahead of Friday’s session.
At one point, negotiations were on the verge of breaking down over Ukraine’s proposed ceasefire timeline. Kyiv offered to pause fighting for 30, 60, or 90 days in order to open the door for high-level talks and humanitarian efforts. Russia dismissed the idea and reiterated its demands, most of which Ukraine viewed as not worth considering in the scheme of things.
It wasn’t until a lunch break, reportedly used by Turkish officials to reset the mood, that discussions turned more productive. Fidan urged the sides to focus on smaller, achievable goals. That shift led to agreement on humanitarian corridors and Red Cross access to previously unreachable areas.
The breakthrough came when Turkey proposed expanding the scope of a limited prisoner exchange. After checking in with their respective governments, both delegations agreed to a large-scale swap, including civilians, something not initially on the table for discussion.
While the peace talks did not put a sudden end to the war, they kept diplomacy alive. Interestingly, a source close to the discussions says one of the delegations is prepared to return to Istanbul next week, though the other party remains undecided.
The prospect of high-level participation by Presidents Vladimir Putin or Volodymyr Zelensky had fueled speculation in the lead-up to the summit. But those hopes faded quickly as they sent delegates instead to the peace talks. Erdoğan, aware of the risks of inflated expectations, had reportedly advised both sides to keep a low profile if no substantial peace announcement was made.
The peace talks in Istanbul might not end the war, but Turkey’s leadership and the shared desire by Russia and Ukraine to come to a table, sign humanitarian agreements, and express their positions are indicators that diplomacy will eventually thrive.
