Key Points
- JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon continues to believe that the chances of a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy are only about 35% to 40%, making a recession the most probable outcome in his view.
- When asked if his perspective had shifted since February, where he had suggested that markets were overly optimistic about recession risks, Dimon indicated that his assessment remains largely unchanged.
- Dimon also expressed skepticism about the Federal Reserve’s ability to reduce inflation to its 2% target, citing future expenditures on the green economy and military as potential obstacles.
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, reiterated on Wednesday that he still believes the likelihood of a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy is around 35% to 40%, implying that a recession remains the most probable scenario.
During an interview with CNBC’s Leslie Picker, Dimon was asked whether he had altered his view since February, when he suggested that markets were too optimistic regarding recession risks. Dimon replied that his outlook has stayed consistent, with the odds being “about the same” as his earlier prediction.
“There’s a lot of uncertainty out there,” Dimon stated. “I’ve always highlighted factors like geopolitics, housing, deficits, spending, quantitative tightening, and elections as causes for concern in the markets.”
As the leader of the largest U.S. bank by assets and a highly respected figure on Wall Street, Dimon has been cautioning about an economic “hurricane” since 2022. However, he acknowledged that the economy has performed better than he had anticipated. While he noted that defaults on credit card debt are rising, he clarified that the U.S. is not currently in a recession.
Dimon also mentioned his skepticism that the Federal Reserve can achieve its 2% inflation target, pointing to future spending on green initiatives and military needs as potential hurdles.
“There’s always a broad range of possible outcomes,” Dimon added. “I’m confident that even in the event of a mild or more severe recession, we would manage. But I am deeply concerned for those who may lose their jobs. No one wants a hard landing.”
Source: CNBC
