For the assessment of 2024, we have chosen two current analyses. The first is from the pen of the former Slovak Minister of Finance and political-economic analyst Ivo Mikloš. According to him, the victory of Donald Trump in the American elections, the fall of the government in France and Germany, the impeachment of the South Korean president, the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, the weakening of Iran, or the economic problems of Russia in 2024 represent certain important signals.
In his assessment, Mikloš states that the political turbulence in some advanced democracies has something in common. They are primarily system errors that are not short-term in nature, but are long-term and have deeper causes. For example, 2024 showed that Trump’s victory in 2016 was not a systemic error, but rather a systemic change.
According to him, this also applies to a certain extent to political developments in the most important EU countries, France and Germany. In France, President Macron, whose popularity is waning, called early elections in which far-right and far-left parties strengthened.
In Germany, internal disputes within the unpopular government coalition led to its collapse. The early elections in February 2025 also threaten the strengthening of the far left and the extreme right. A constitutional crisis has occurred in South Korea as disputes between the liberal majority in parliament and the conservative president have escalated.
Mikloš therefore marks the year 2024 as the year of the crisis of liberal democracy, or the year of growing distrust towards the currently ruling elites. In almost all the elections held in democratic countries in 2024, the ruling parties lost their power.
This situation is then reflected not only in the growing distrust of the currently ruling politicians, but also in the distrust of the institutions on which an open, free and democratic society stands, i.e. the system of liberal democracy. Distrust of institutions is replaced by blind trust in strong personalities who personify opposition to institutions, which can mean a direct threat to freedom and democracy, but also stability and prosperity.
Mikloš further states that, in addition to the aforementioned trends and messages of the outgoing year, in connection with Trump and the increase in the influence and popularity of the extreme left and extreme right, it should also be noted that liberal democracy has never functioned flawlessly.
These mistakes are personified by Angela Merkel, the German chancellor from 2005 to 2021. It was a period of naive policy of dependence on Russia and China, shutdown of functional and safe nuclear power plants, insufficient investment in defense but also in infrastructure, a period of stability at the cost of any compromises and avoidance necessary reforms. Her only major and politically courageous move was to open the borders to refugees from the Middle East in 2015. This move was bold and unpopular, as it averted a looming humanitarian crisis.
The author of the assessment further states that the failure to manage illegal migration during the Biden administration, which repealed Trump’s measures but did not replace them with others, was also one of the important reasons for Trump’s re-election in 2024. Trump also politically used the consequences of the naive policy of the West towards China, which for a long time, since its entry into the WTO in 2001, has used incorrect trade practices, including limited access to its market, or increasing the global and ecological burden.
Finally, 2024 was also the third year of Russia’s bloody and conquering war against Ukraine. Throughout this year, Russia attacked and achieved certain territorial gains, which were achieved at the cost of enormous Russian losses in manpower and equipment. But Russia already has to rely on the help of a foreign, North Korean army. This development is not indicative of Russia’s strength, while there are further evidences of its weakness. Russia is losing economically, it was no longer able to help even its ally Assad, who lost power in Syria, Russian mercenary groups are losing influence in Africa, and another important ally of Russia – Iran and its extended arm Hezbollah – has also been significantly weakened, concludes Ivan Mikloš.
The development of the world economy is evaluated among others by The Economist. According to the magazine The Irony of Fate, it is precisely the countries that were on the verge of bankruptcy more than ten years ago who will be at the top of the OECD economic rankings in 2024. Spain, Greece and Italy, which were saved by the European Union with billion-dollar aid packages during the debt crisis, today represent the most dynamic economies of the developed world. Spain took the first place with a significant GDP growth of 3.5%, Greece shares the third place with Denmark and Italy completes the top five most successful economies.
The magazine reports that the world economy in 2024 surprisingly prospered despite difficult conditions, including wars, elections and high interest rates. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported global growth of 3.2%, with inflation falling, unemployment remaining low and stock markets rising 20% for the second year in a row.
Colombia and Israel (both 6th place), Lithuania (8th place), Switzerland (9th place) and South Korea (10th place) also placed in the top ten. The United States ranked 20th with GDP growth of 2.5% and a significant increase in stock markets of 23.6%.
On the contrary, Northern Europe, once considered an economic model, recorded worse results. Germany ended up in 23rd place with minimal GDP growth of 0.1%, and Britain fell to 31st place. The Baltic states fared worst – Latvia (36th) with a 1.1% drop in GDP and a dramatic 37.3% drop in stock markets, and Estonia (37th place) with a 0.2% drop in GDP and a drop in stock markets by 6.2%.
Happy New Year 2025!
